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The power of DFM Consulting's methods and tools rests on the strength of ongoing research into design optimization, engineering organizations, and product development economics. Research which has already been published is accessible here. The abstracts of our research papers are below, with links to the papers themselves. Papers which are not directly in html are stored as Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) files. Read what others are saying about Design for the Marketplace research. |
Design teams can create a higher performance, more affordable product through a clear and unified set of Design Values. To achieve unity, Design Values must be established, then communicated to the team. Project Management should establish and communicate uniform Values, despite technological and political difficulties, as a matter of good leadership.
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A value model was developed to support the VAATE program to evaluate propulsion system technologies and provide an objective for parametric studies that would identify optimal engine cycles. The value model determines a score for a prospective engine design based on ten propulsion system properties that describe the design.
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Spacecraft and launch systems are examples of complex products which require a careful balance between competing concerns, such as performance, weight, and reliability, to serve their mission. Complexity requires design by large engineering organizations, so this balance must be achieved across many teams of people working on various components. This paper uses optimization theory to derive a method for distributed optimal design. Each component design team is provided with a separate optimization problem such that, as each team finds the best design solution to their problem, the teams together design the best system. To date, distributed optimal design has been difficult because complex system design spaces have extremely high dimensions over which design objectives are poorly correlated. Instead, the paper proposes that design objectives be expressed as functions in property spaces, which have few dimensions and are much smoother than design spaces. Property spaces are generated from design spaces by traditional engineering analysis processes. Economic analysis of all parties to the spacecraft launch and operation is used to construct a top-level value function on the system property space. This function is linearly decomposed into value functions for component property spaces. This provides the needed objective functions for distributed optimal design.
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An economic model is presented which relates engineering performance characteristics to product profitability for conceptual and preliminary design of propulsion systems and aircraft. The model represents the competitive marketplace rigorously, which sets it apart from the prevailing state of the art. The model is shown to produce significantly different design results than current approaches.
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The development and production contract for the Joint Strike Fighter can be structured to save the government an estimated $50 billion and improve the contractor's expected profits at the same time. The key is to incentivize the contractor to manage the weapon system design in a novel way that maximizes the collective benefit to the government and the contractor. This paper presents a method of distributed optimal design that is tied to a value-based contract. A method of quantifying weapon system value is presented: a value model used both for contracting and design. Given the value model, the contract is shown to be a superior prospect from the government perspective. The contract is also attractive from the contractor's point of view, and has no risk of loss.
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At Rolls-Royce Corporation in Indianapolis, Indiana, a study determined that manufacturing part cost can be estimated from dimensional data in the part definition. The method appears to be more accurate than mass-based parametric models or process simulation cost models. It has the additional advantages that part definition information is causally related to part manufacturing cost; that part definition information is entirely and easily available to design engineers during the detailed design phase; and that mature (learned out) part cost can be estimated even with radically new manufacturing processes for which no cost data base exists.
This paper presents a theoretical basis for the model using Shannon's theory of information; foundational work performed at MIT on calculating cost from information; and the data and results of the study at Rolls-Royce Corporation.
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In a complex and uncertain world, plans are frequently changed in the course of execution. The change may be an alteration of the course of action, or the goal of the plan may be modified. Previously, goals have been treated as immutable, or changes to goals have been regarded as irrational or beyond the scope of rational behavior. This paper shows that goal changing can be a rational alternative in a decision to modify a plan during execution. The likelihood that replanning may occur has a major impact on the expected cost and benefit of plans, and thus on the evaluation of alternatives when making planning decisions. In particular, the decision to replan is modeled in terms of costs and benefits, leading to a quantitative discussion of when goal change is a preferred alternative. The dynamic evolution of goals and courses of action during plan execution is analyzed.
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"Complex Product Realization" refers to the technologies and processes associated with conceiving, designing, and manufacturing highly integrated, multi-component systems. This project focused on the intricacies associated with the overall design of such systems. The primary research goal was to begin to identify challenges beyond those being addressed by existing, near-term research efforts. This paper reports the preliminary findings of literature reviews, interviews, and a workshop conducted between July and September 1999.
The ultimate vision for complex product realization is a new paradigm born out of the confluence of radical advances in information technologies, analytical tools using this information, and the changes in organizations these advances will enable. In this new world, sophisticated simulations are seamlessly integrated with conceptual and detailed design tools. These tools allow customers, designers and managers to learn and adapt together as they experiment in real time with a multitude of product concepts. Intelligent agents monitor the process and provide guidance on overall design strategy, technical risks and opportunities, manufacturing issues, reliability and life cycle cost.
As product realization progresses, the learning and adaptation process expands to encompass all participants in all product life cycle areas. Large, international teams of designers, developers, manufacturers, marketing personnel, and managers — all trained in working effectively across organizational cultures — are facilitated in their product tradeoff negotiations by multi-attribute, cross-disciplinary optimization tools. High-level managers and senior product architects take advantage of their wide and detailed view into the evolving web of business relationships to facilitate the absorption of new technologies, provide guidance on changing customer needs, and formulate a product portfolio strategy.
The foundation of this future product realization environment is based on advancing information technologies — i.e., the convergence of digital technologies for voice, data and images, combined with increasing processing power, network capacity and software efficiency. Much of current research aims to leverage emerging information technologies to coordinate the activities of design teams, managers, and supply chain players so as to reduce product cycle time and life cycle cost while increasing user satisfaction with the resulting products. Sophisticated, network-based design tools that facilitate concurrent optimization of component and subsystem designs are already being used in certain product areas and are expected to diffuse widely over the next decade.
But even if current research and design tool applications come to complete fruition, capabilities in complex product realization will likely fall short of the vision. Researchers and industry are far from achieving a science of complex, integrated systems. New mathematical and analytical capabilities will be needed to underpin complex product realization tools in 2020. These tools will also need to incorporate scientific understanding and characterization of new types of production processes for emerging technologies; e.g., MEMS, bio-mechatronics, and nano-structures. Four general issue areas that will require substantial progress beyond current trends are listed below:
Within these general issue areas, this study has identified a set of overlapping research challenges that will need to be addressed if progress toward this vision is to be assured:
Future work in projecting trends in complex product realization will need to identify these research areas more specifically and delve into how particular aspects of the ultimate vision might happen. Key questions to be addressed would include the following:
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"The concept of surplus value was documented by Collopy in 1997 ... It is therefore in the best interests of the engine manufacturers, airframe manufacturers, airlines and ultimately consumers, to optimize engine designs to achieve maximum aircraft surplus value ... More traditional optimization parameters, such as fuel burn, fail to produce the best engine from an economic perspective, because they focus only on costs without regard to revenue generation potential." Jim Younghans (Manager of Preliminary Design and Performance, GE Aircraft Engines) et al., Preliminary Design of Low Cost Propulsion Systems Using Next Generation Cost Modeling Techniques
"The time has come when people must design for success in the marketplace. A recent paper by Collopy provided some new thinking about product design for the marketplace ... It is essential that engineers begin to work in the design world with a greater understanding of the interaction that their new product will have in the intended marketplace. In part this will be done through DFMA [Design for Manufacturing and Assembly] but beyond even this discipline, it is necessary to develop market models which will help guide the design optimization process." Dr. Dave Japikse (Fellow of the ASME, Founder and Chairman of Concepts ETI, Inc.) Decisive Factors in Advanced Centrifugal Compressor Design and Development
"I think your basic concept is sound indeed and there could be no question but that the fundamental objective of any contracting relationship should be to place the contractor in a position such that it is motivated out of its own interest to take exactly those actions which maximize the benefit to the purchaser." Norman R. Augustine, former Chairman, Lockheed Martin
"I believe decisions based on value function are best for our business. More people need to be exposed to this concept." "If everyone has the same understanding of these concepts, we would see tremendous improvements and profits. " Seminar attendees
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